Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 1.586552 1.648726 1.713327 1.785713 1.864873 1.949171 2.046213
2025-12-07 1.484888 1.564166 1.649007 1.747218 1.858651 1.982255 2.131323
2025-12-14 1.426459 1.517827 1.617800 1.736485 1.875182 2.034327 2.234166
2025-12-21 1.376385 1.475861 1.586590 1.720692 1.881203 2.070669 2.317073
2025-12-28 1.352564 1.461227 1.584237 1.736223 1.922664 2.149418 2.455849
2026-01-04 1.336931 1.454404 1.589500 1.759633 1.973400 2.241318 2.618166
2026-01-11 1.309041 1.431423 1.573835 1.755801 1.988732 2.287738 2.722433
2026-01-18 1.287497 1.414760 1.564527 1.758596 2.011612 2.344324 2.844920
2026-01-25 1.253003 1.381101 1.532930 1.731445 1.993361 2.343314 2.882304
2026-02-01 1.229759 1.360211 1.516088 1.722009 1.997478 2.372541 2.966766
2026-02-08 1.206791 1.338840 1.497740 1.709565 1.996437 2.393733 3.039903
2026-02-15 1.185894 1.319338 1.480972 1.698279 1.996026 2.415203 3.114833
2026-02-22 1.173246 1.310196 1.477557 1.705191 2.022171 2.478877 3.270376
2026-03-01 1.143763 1.279212 1.445333 1.672354 1.990589 2.453565 3.268977
2026-03-08 1.126297 1.262864 1.431362 1.663469 1.992520 2.479241 3.361007
2026-03-15 1.107571 1.244434 1.414128 1.649420 1.986134 2.491222 3.428903
2026-03-22 1.101767 1.242176 1.417700 1.663785 2.021629 2.571645 3.638445
2026-03-29 1.099168 1.243840 1.426307 1.685240 2.068529 2.674212 3.911805
2026-04-05 1.086827 1.232619 1.417488 1.681774 2.077317 2.713398 4.058360
2026-04-12 1.077418 1.224941 1.413114 1.684338 2.095310 2.769534 4.253964
2026-04-19 1.057937 1.203770 1.390155 1.659538 2.069424 2.746466 4.258340
2026-04-26 1.045316 1.191325 1.378664 1.650910 2.068620 2.768158 4.376520
2026-05-03 1.032153 1.177919 1.365565 1.639523 2.062868 2.780342 4.473197